America's commercial invasion of foreign markets has been carefully investigated by Mr. Gilson Willets and described in a series of remarkable articles in Harper's Weekly, 1904, to which the reader must go for details. We need mention here only those facts which show such serious supersaturation in Germany which in one year (1903) took $75,000,000 worth of our corn, dried fruits of all kinds, and even grapevines, and many millions of dollars worth of meats in spite of the prohibition of our canned meats and sausages. She takes immense quantities of our coal, the Bavarian Railroad using Ohio coal exclusively. Philadelphia locomotives, Chicago cars, tobacco, furniture, typewriters, sewing machines, lumber, agricultural implements, hardware, clothing, hats, shoes and machinery and electric appliances flood their land, our oysters, smoked fish, lard, peanuts, popcorn and syrups are eaten, and some of our skilled workmen manage their shops. Is it any wonder that they are seriously alarmed with the thought that if they lose their foreign markets for those goods, which they formerly made more cheaply than we, they will not have money to buy, and starvation or emigration result?
The tenor of all utterances from Germany is to the effect that civilization's dependence upon commerce 319 the Monroe Doctrine is being strained to interfere with her South American trade, and that this interference may in time be a cause of war, and to this end her navy must be increased. Nevertheless, war would be worse than peace in this case. Frank G. Carpenter (Washington Star) says:
"Are the Germans preparing for war with the United States? I think not. They are jealous of our commercial supremacy and in response to the agrarians have enacted a tariff which may affect our trade. They would like to overthrow the Monroe Doctrine and have a chance to colonize and develop South America, but they have no idea of attempting anything that might bring on an American war. Indeed they realize, for the first time, something of our resources and power. They know that they are dependent upon us for food, they know also that we are among their best customers and they claim to be the friendliest of our friends on the European continent".
France is not getting spheres of influence for colonization, for the conditions are exactly the reverse. The stream is and always has been into and not out of France, and depopulation is impossible in such a rich country. Races from more vigorous climates are clamoring to invade France now as they have for thousands of years, and will go individually even if the army prevents such wholesale invasions as formerly. France is importing food because supersaturated, and she must sell something to pay for it, and is worried over the possible loss of trade.*
* "The danger is already at our threshold and is making itself felt. Brutal figures prove this fact most conclusively. A revolution which will change the commercial balance of power is taking place before our eyes. Until recent years the Americans have been the best customers of European industries; they are now our competitors, and in very many branches have beaten us in the world's markets.
"Gradually the Americans are pushing their way into the British colonies. The last railroad built in India has American rails. American manufacturers export their iron and motors, their machinery and galvanic wires to Cape Colony. Egypt, too, has Philadelphia bridge builders on the scene. Three hundred railway coaches have found their way from New Jersey into the land of the Pharaohs, and electrical tramways are forged in the foundries of Pittsburg to connect Cairo with the pyramids. Even Europe is not safe against the invasion of American goods. Russia, France, Germany and Italy must pay tribute. England herself buys American locomotives, steel rails, paper ware, railroad coaches and even coal. Sheffield, the home of the steel industry, has been dethroned by Pittsburg. It would be frivolity itself to remain indifferent to the expansion of this leviathan people." (Geo. Wen-lersee, Paris, Grande Revue).
Mr. Frederick Emory,* Chief of Bureau of Foreign Commerce, in the State Department, showed very clearly the gradual evolution of our foreign trade in recent years, and that the United States has only just become a world power from this reason. He calls attention to a series of articles in the London Times, beginning January 4th, 1899, in which the writer has analyzed the powerful economic forces at work for years preparing the way for our expansion. Political forces were not at work until the last. The war with Spain was like exploding a mine built up by years of labor; it seemingly accomplished a change of policy, but it no more did it than did the child remove the obstructions of Hell Gate by touching the electric button. He shows also that interference with our West Indian trade and the future Panama Canal and the necessity of forcing incompetent Spain from this hemisphere, were more powerful than sympathy with Cubans, though it was a play upon that sympathy which accomplished what trade wanted and could not get so quickly. Mr. Emory truly says that commercial expansion lies at the root of acquisition of Porto Rico, Hawaiian and Philippine Islands, though we have a multiplicity of other causes in each case. Before this Mr. Richard Olney, from his knowledge of State matters, called attention to the positive necessity for expansion. His article * is almost prophesy, for he showed how we must take part in world affairs or die. Mr. Blaine's conception of reciprocity seems "divine inspiration," yet it was only appreciating the modern struggle for existence. From now on, if Americans in those teeming millions of the city factories are to live, their goods must be sold abroad, and the army and navy are but tools the nation uses to help keep these foreign markets, and preserve the nation. Reciprocity treaties are only temporarily shelved. The policy of national isolation is in its death throes. President Cleveland could not keep out the Hawaiian Islands.