Ratio of business and residence value. The proportion between land values due to different utilities varies widely in different cities, evidencing the response of special sections to special forces. Thus the best business and the best residence land in the same city shows in New York, with $35,000 per front foot for business and $9,000 per front foot for residence

Urban Land-Values. Table I

land, a proportion of about 4 to 1 ; in Buffalo with $4,500 for business land and $500 for residence land a proportion of 9 to 1 ; in Minneapolis with $2,500 for business and $100 for residence land a proportion of 25 to 1; and in Seattle with $2000 for business and $100 for residence, a proportion of 20 to 1. When we turn to Southern cities, Richmond with $1,600 for business and $300 for residence shows a proportion of 5 to 1 ; and Atlanta with $2,000 for the best business and $200 for the best residence, a proportion of 10 to 1. As explaining this difference between Western and Southern cities, business is active and progressive in Western cities, producing high business values, while residences are scattered by the trolley and are not held together by the old-established residence sections, whereas in Southern cities the scale of business operations is less, partly owing to the diminished purchasing power of the negroes, resulting in low business values, while residence values are raised by the greater importance attached to social considerations and the greater age of the cities. The abnormally high values of residence property in New York testifies to its limited quantity and to the keen demand for it on the part of the many millionaires who make New York their home.

Wholesale business. Heavy wholesale property responds but feebly to increased population, varying from $100 to $400 in value in cities of 300,000 people or under. Where values run above these figures the property would include some retail feature. The proportion of value between the best retail land and the best wholesale is, therefore, one which increases with the size of the city, ranging from 4 to 1 in the smaller cities, up to 10 to 1 in the largest. As examples of the value of the best retail, best wholesale and best residence land in various cities, the following list of front foot values is submitted.

table II.

Nature of city-growth [page 145].2 The total value of a city's site is broadly based on population and wealth, the physical city being the reflex of the total social activities of its inhabitants. Whatever the type of city, growth consists of movement away from the point of origin and is of two kinds; central, or in all directions, and axial, or along the watercourses, railroads and turnpikes which form the framework of cities. Modern rapid transit stimulates axial growth, producing star-shaped cities, whose modification in shape comes chiefly from topographical faults....

1 [Census figures for 1900.]

2 [The following paragraphs contain the larger part of the last chapter, the summary of the book, but omit the diagrams and charts.]

[Page 148.] While the outward glacial movement of a city continues, the daily currents of travel within alter its internal structure. The fluidity of daily traffic shifts utilities, creates plastic conditions in cities and keeps values in a state of unstable equilibrium.

Elements in a forecast of land-value. To look at the problem from the individual standpoint, in attempting to state the value of any single property, the inquiry would seek first, upon what forces does the city itself depend, how permanent are they, how diversified, are they strengthening and what is the resulting index figure, to wit, the rate of increase of the city's population; next, what are the characteristics of the section of the city in which the property is located, its past history, its present stability, its future prospects; what is the central strength of the property, how near the main center of the city or the various subcenters of attraction; what is its axial strength, the quantity, quality and regularity of the passing travel, what is the character of building on the property as to suitability, planning, physical condition, prospect of changing utility, management, convertibility, gross and net income; at what prices have surrounding property been selling, are they rising or falling, and do they suggest any factors not yet taken into account; is the property liable to be injured or benefited by changes in the building laws; is there any special enterprise or strength on the part of the owner or of surrounding owners likely to affect the property, what would be the probable effect of any inventions or improvements in transportation or the construction of buildings; and, finally, what are the general commercial conditions as affecting the earning power of tenants, actual or prospective, and financial conditions as affecting the capitalization rate.

The problem is never a simple one, being as complex as city life itself, but it is not insoluble, since the forces creating cities are governed by uniform laws, like causes producing like results, apparent exceptions being due to the influence of factors not reckoned on. The popular impression that the ability to forecast future movements of city growth points a quick way to fortune is an overestimate, since real estate movements are slow, large capital is required to handle it, carrying charges are heavy, and even though the forecast may be ultimately correct, the rate of movement is uncertain, depending on the operation of vast economic forces impossible of exact prediction.

Unequal changes in values. If business expands and population increases in a city, the sum total of land values is certain to increase. All the land, however, will by no means increase in value, the great mass of medium business and residence property advancing but slowly since it supplies the wants of a large number of people of moderate earning power who cannot pay beyond a certain price. Coincident with the gradual lifting of values as population becomes more dense, decaying sections, left behind in the onward march, drop down the scale of inferior utilities and values, sometimes to the point of extinction. Such worn-out property exhibits in its dilapidations both absence of utility and public confession of that fact. If population and business become stationary the sum total of land values will decrease in proportion to the previous discounting of future growth, subsequent movements consisting of redistribution of value, as one part of the city or another, or one individual or another, flourishes or declines.

The principal causes of the redistribution of value in all cities are, increase in population and wealth, especially in causing relocation or extension of the best residence district, changes in transportation, such as new surface, elevated, or underground lines, new bridges, tunnels, ferries and railroads, and the readjustment of new utilities in new areas harmonizing the complex contending factors.