While it is not likely that the Rand will show an appreciable decrease for a good many years to come, it is probably not far from the maximum output. There has been no gain in the world's production for some years except that made by the Rand.

The figures given in the foregoing tables show how the hitherto undeveloped countries, outside of the old circle of industrial nations, are reaching out for a share of the new supplies. As a river rises in flood the water creeps over its banks, backs up its tributaries, fills up adjacent low places, and spreads out over expansive areas of lowlands, with the result that vastly more water is required to raise the level at the high-water stage than when the river is low. A somewhat similar distribution of new gold is going on and in prospect.

The historical parallel [page 288]. Gold was discovered in California in 1848 and in Australia in 1851, and by 1852 these new fields were producing together over $100,000,000 per year. The first noticeable effect was an accumulation of gold in the Bank of England, which reduced its discount rate to encourage borrowing. The first industrial effect was in the shipping and shipbuilding industry, due to the demands of an increasing trade with the United States and Australia, but the revival soon extended to the building trades and thence to all branches of industry, and spread over Europe.

By this time apprehensions were expressed as to the disturbing effects upon monetary systems of the threatened inundation of gold. Holland and Belgium stopped coining it.

About this time counteracting influences began to operate, and in view of the present movement of gold to India it is an interesting fact that the most important modifying influence at that time was the movement of specie to India. . . .

Professor Stanley Jevons, a contemporary writer of high repute . . . writing in 1865 and reviewing prices since 1849, said:

If we compare prices now (March, 1865) with what they were at their lowest in 1849, we find there has been a rise of 21 per cent. If we take the average of 1845-1850 as our standard of comparison, the rise is 11 per cent. The real permanent rise due to the gold discoveries is doubtless something between these, or probably nearer the higher limit, 21 per cent. The gold discoveries have caused this rise of price. They have also neutralized the fall of prices which might have been expected from the continuous progress of invention and production, but of which the amount is necessarily unknown.