This section is from the "A Plain Guide To Investment And Finance" book, by Lawrence R. Dicksee. Also see Amazon: A Plain Guide To Investment And Finance.
The importance of the conviction that the values of securities depend upon ascertainable causes - furnishing accordingly a helpful means to decisions and serenity of judgment - suggests a fragmentary collection of other determining conditions besides those which have been described in minuter detail. It will be observed generally, that, as in nature, the causes which influence prices usually act not singly, but in closer or slighter conjunction.
The clearness or cheapness of coal and its effect on certain classes of stocks and shares
The dearness or cheapness of coal depresses or advances the values of the shares of shipping and railway companies, and those of manufacturing industries. Debenture stocks and preference shares, of course, remain unaffected, since their interest is fixed by contract. It was publicly announced in the early part of 1908 that in consequence of a rise in the cost of coal the coal bill of the Caledonian Railway had increased from £151,000 a year in 1898 to £360,000 in 1907, while in the Cunard Shipping Company an additional charge of 1s. or 1s. 6d. per ton would augment the yearly cost for coal by £100,000.
Unfavourable weather obviously influences railway traffic, and its prolonged continuance will temporarily depress the values of the shares. This effect is more pronounced in the light or passenger lines than in the heavy or goods lines, since in the former the trains must be prepared to start, and must start, whether the passengers be few or many, while in the latter the number of trains and trucks employed can be adjusted to the 'materials (according to the energy or feebleness of trade) which it can be reasonably ascertained are likely to be carried.
The depressing effect of strikes on the values of railway and industrial shares is readily apprehended.
Railway shares have been needlessly depreciated by reckless and inefficient management. In former days occurred the building of loop lines which practically led nowhere, carried no one, and produced nothing - the consequence of a mania for mere magnitude of area - and at the present date redundant trains are run in response to thoughtless competition, and needlessly luxurious travelling for a people which is losing the manliness and. endurance of life. It appears from the latest returns that during the year 1906 the railway companies of the United Kingdom received in gross receipts (excluding steamboats) the sum of £49,883,000 under passenger traffic, and £58,394,000 in respect of goods, materials and live stock, or a total revenue of £108,277,000. The engineering expenses, strictly attributable to the conveyance of the traffic, amounted to £36,415,000, the traffic charges were £21,000,000, and the balance of cost consisted of miscellaneous items - the aggregate expenditure being £68,898,000. The working charge accordingly was upwards of 63⅜ per cent of the receipts. Wanton competition and defective administration are largely responsible for this wasteful ratio.
Bonds and shares generally may be suddenly depressed without any assignable cause, and inquiry should precede alarm. When an estate which contains a large quantity of a particular stock must be distributed in consequence of the owner's death the sale of so much property in the market - especially where several events of the kind concur - is often sufficient to induce a heavy and unexpected fall. The dulness of rational people is frequently inexplicable: a sale in block in the instances mentioned acts against the interests of the beneficiaries themselves, and a gradual sale is quite as feasible and less harmful in results.
Insurance companies are usually (except life offices) large holders of Stock Exchange securities, and when an extensive conflagration occurs which demands a partial disposal for the immediate settlement of claims the act is registered in a temporary decline of values.
Expected legislation in a particular direction, especially if it be prompted in the form of crude and ignorant socialist proposals - propounded either by people who never think intelligently and consecutively, or by those whose quest is gain, without service, at another's expense and loss - naturally tends to a depreciation of prices, as indicating a decline of national good faith, the predominance of unnational and exclusive ends, or the pandering to unrighteous clamour.
 
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